Explosive Breakout: Urgent Stealth Gamma Strategy Targets CSV for Massive Gains

Executive Summary: Carriage Services, Inc. (CSV) – Stealth + Gamma(Call) Strategy

A. Why CSV is a Buy

At a price of $43.07, Carriage Services (CSV) presents a compelling opportunity for a Stealth + Gamma(Call) strategy. The technical indicators support this outlook. The On Balance Volume (OBV) is trending Up, indicating accumulation by institutional investors even as the price consolidates. This suggests a hidden accumulation phase. The Money Flow Index (MFI) at 57.20 confirms that smart money is actively flowing into the stock, representing an ideal uptrend. The Relative Volume (RVOL) of 2.02 shows that there is sufficient energy for a potential move. The stock’s ROT(X) is 0.01, indicating that shares are being exchanged, which is a healthy sign for future price appreciation. With a FLOAT_M of 15.40, CSV exhibits characteristics of a low float stock, meaning that even moderate buying pressure can lead to significant price appreciation. The stock has broken through a key PIVOT level, suggesting that previous resistance is now acting as support. Furthermore, the Bollinger Bands are inside the Keltner Channel, signaling a potential breakout. The target price of $60.00, representing a 39.3% upside, suggests that institutions believe the stock is undervalued. The stock price is below the VWAP of $43.26, indicating that recent buyers are underwater, which could lead to increased buying pressure to defend their positions.

B. Catalyst

Carriage Services’ recent financial performance provides a solid foundation for growth. In 2024, the company exceeded its full-year guidance, achieving $404.2 million in total revenue, a 5.7% increase over the prior year. Q3 2025 revenue was $102.7 million, exceeding analyst estimates by 1.3%, with adjusted EPS of $0.75, beating estimates by 3%. The company’s 2025 guidance projects revenue between $400-$410 million and adjusted diluted EPS of $3.10-$3.30. The demographic trends in the death care industry provide a stable demand base. Carriage Services’ strategic initiatives, including preneed sales and operational improvements, are expected to drive growth. The company’s focus on strategic acquisitions and divestitures will further enhance its market position. Analysts have a consensus rating of Moderate Buy with a price target of $59.00, indicating a substantial upside potential. The 52-week position is at 55.80, indicating potential for overhead resistance.

Okay, here’s the analysis:

1. Algorithmic Intelligence: Stealth + Gamma(Call) Explained

A. Mechanism

This strategy combines stealth accumulation with the potential for explosive gains through call options. The “stealth” component involves identifying stocks where institutional investors are quietly building a position, often evidenced by increasing volume while the price remains relatively stable. The “Gamma(Call)” component leverages call options to amplify potential upside if the stock price breaks out. The idea is to position for a significant move while limiting downside risk to the premium paid for the call options. This works best when a stock is coiled and ready to spring.

B. Setup on CSV

As of December 2025, Carriage Services (CSV) presents an interesting setup for this strategy. The stock is currently trading at $43.07, with a target price of $60.0, indicating a potential upside of 39.3%. The Market Cap is $678.00 million, and the Float is relatively low at 15.40 million shares, suggesting a ” 품절주(Low Float)” effect where even moderate buying pressure can lead to significant price appreciation.

The On Balance Volume (OBV) is Up, indicating accumulation is occurring. This suggests that despite any price stagnation, buying pressure is present. The Money Flow Index (MFI) is at 57.20, signaling that smart money is flowing into the stock. The Relative Volume (RVOL) is 2.02, indicating that there is sufficient energy for an upward move. ROT(X) is 0.01, suggesting that shares are being exchanged. The 52-week position is 55.80%, indicating overhead resistance is minimized. The stock has broken through a significant price resistance, as indicated by PIVOT: Yes.

Furthermore, the TTM Squeeze is On, meaning the Bollinger Bands have moved inside the Keltner Channel, indicating a potential for a significant breakout. This is a strong signal that a substantial price movement is imminent. Given the Average True Range (ATR) of 1.07, traders should account for this level of volatility when setting stop-loss orders. The VWAP is 43.26, suggesting that recent buyers are in a profitable position.

1. Executive Summary

Carriage Services (CSV), currently priced at $43.07, presents a compelling opportunity based on a Stealth + Gamma(Call) strategy. The technical indicators suggest a potential for significant upside, supported by strong financial performance and strategic initiatives. The target price of $60.0, representing a 39.3% increase, underscores the confidence in this stock’s future performance. Institutions clearly see value here.

2. Technical Deep Dive

– The Money Flow Index (MFI) at 57.20 indicates that smart money is actively flowing into CSV, representing an ideal phase for sustained upward momentum. Price may lie, but volume never does.
– Relative Volume (RVOL) of 2.02 confirms that there is sufficient energy for a sustained move higher.
– The On Balance Volume (OBV) is trending upwards, signaling a pattern of accumulation by institutional investors even as the price consolidates. This is a classic sign of stealth accumulation.
– The Bollinger Bands are squeezing inside the Keltner Channel, indicating a “perfect vacuum” and imminent breakout. The TTM Squeeze is ON, a reliable precursor to a substantial price movement.
– The stock has broken through a significant pivot point, suggesting that previous resistance levels are now acting as support.
– With 52-week position at 55.80%, there is room for CSV to run.

Okay, here’s the fundamental deep dive on Carriage Services (CSV), as of December 2025:

3. Fundamental Deep Dive

Carriage Services (CSV), currently priced at $43.07, presents an interesting opportunity given its fundamentals and sector dynamics. The company operates within the stable death care industry, driven by consistent mortality rates.

Financial Performance

Carriage Services has demonstrated solid financial performance. In 2024, the company exceeded its full-year guidance, achieving total revenue of $404.2 million, a 5.7% increase over the prior year. Adjusted diluted EPS was $2.65, a substantial 21.0% increase. Looking at more recent data, Q3 2025 revenue reached $102.7 million, exceeding analyst estimates by 1.3%, with adjusted EPS at $0.75, beating estimates by 3%. For the first three quarters of 2025, Q1 revenue was $107.1 million (up 3.5% year-over-year), Q2 revenue was $102.1 million, and Q3 revenue was $102.7 million.

Strategic Moat

Carriage Services differentiates itself through operational excellence and strategic acquisitions. The company’s focus on preneed sales and pricing strategies contributes to growth. The Last Twelve Months (LTM) show revenue of $409.66 million and profits of $48.95 million, with earnings per share at $3.09.

Growth Catalysts

The company’s 2025 guidance projects total revenue between $400-$410 million, adjusted consolidated EBITDA of $128-$133 million, adjusted diluted EPS of $3.10-$3.30, and adjusted free cash flow of $40-$50 million. Analysts have a consensus rating of Moderate Buy with a price target of $59.00, indicating a potential 39.3% upside from the current price. This suggests that institutions believe the stock is undervalued. The target price represents a significant “pie” to be eaten.

Carriage Services, Inc. (CSV) – Analysis: December 2025

Executive Summary

Carriage Services (CSV) presents a compelling investment opportunity based on a combination of stealth accumulation, favorable technical indicators, and a solid financial foundation. The company’s strategic focus on operational excellence and strategic acquisitions within the stable death care industry further strengthens its position. The current market dynamics suggest a potential for significant upside.

1. Technical Indicators

• Price: $43.07
• TTM Squeeze: 볼린저 밴드가 켈트너 채널 안으로 쏙 들어갔습니다. 이는 ‘완벽한 진공 상태’이자 ‘진짜 폭발 직전’을 의미합니다. TTM Squeeze 포착은 조만간 거대한 시세 분출이 시작된다는 확실한 신호입니다.
• OBV: 주가는 횡보하거나 떨어져도, 누적 거래량(OBV)은 오르고 있습니다. 이는 100% 세력 매집 패턴입니다. 가격은 누르면서 물량은 계속 사모으고 있다는 뜻입니다.
• MFI: 57.20 – 스마트 머니(Smart Money)가 지속적으로 유입되고 있는 가장 이상적인 상승 구간.
• GAP%: 0.00
• RVOL: 2.02 – 상승을 위한 충분한 에너지가 공급되고 있음.
• ROT(X): 0.01 – 바닥권에서 물려있던 악성 매물들이 새로운 주인을 만나 소화되고 있음. 고인 물은 썩지만, 활발하게 회전되는 주식은 생명력이 길다.
• FLOAT_M: 15.40 – 품절주(Low Float) 효과. 적은 매수세로도 주가가 깃털처럼 가볍게 날아갈 수 있음.
• VWAP: 43.26 – 세력들도 수익권이므로 시세를 지키려 할 것.
• ATR: 1.07 – 이 종목은 하루에 이만큼 움직일 수 있으니, 손절 라인을 너무 타이트하게 잡지 말라.
• 52W_POS: 55.80
• PIVOT: 과거의 천장(저항)이 이제는 든든한 바닥(지지)으로 바뀌었다.

2. Fundamental Analysis

• Carriage Services has demonstrated consistent revenue and earnings growth, exceeding expectations in recent quarters.
• Q3 2025 revenue was $102.7 million, surpassing analyst estimates by 1.3%, and adjusted EPS of $0.75 beat estimates by 3%.
• The company’s 2025 guidance projects continued growth, with revenue expected to reach $400-$410 million.
• The low float of 15.40 million shares suggests that even moderate buying pressure could lead to significant price appreciation.

3. Strategy: Stealth + Gamma(Call)

The recommended strategy is a combination of stealth accumulation of shares coupled with a gamma play using call options. The stealth accumulation is supported by the rising OBV, indicating institutional buying even as the price remains relatively stable. The TTM Squeeze suggests a potential for a significant breakout, making call options an attractive way to leverage potential gains.

4. Price Target Strategy

Based on analyst consensus, the price target for Carriage Services is $59.00. This represents a substantial upside potential from the current price of $43.07. The analyst consensus reflects confidence in the company’s future performance and strategic direction. The focus should be on accumulating shares to capitalize on this anticipated price appreciation.

5. Risk Assessment & Actionable Trading Guide

A. Risk Analysis

Given the “Stealth + Gamma(Call)” strategy, MFI (57.2), CSV presents a tactical opportunity.
ATR (1.07) suggests volatility is expected.

B. Actionable Trading Guide

• Target the Pullback: Wait for a dip to the 20-day MA if price is extended.
• Confirm Breakout: If consolidating, wait for a high-volume breakout above recent highs.
• Stop Loss: Set tight stops below recent swing lows or the 5-day MA.
• Scale Out: Take profits at technical resistance levels. Don’t be greedy.
• Dark Pool Support: If Dark Pool prints are present, use them as major support levels.
• Avoid Chasing: Do not buy blindly at the open if the gap is > 5%.

1. Executive Summary

Carriage Services (CSV), currently priced at $43.07, presents a compelling opportunity based on a Stealth + Gamma(Call) strategy. The company’s fundamentals are solid, as evidenced by its recent financial performance and positive guidance for 2025. The stock exhibits several bullish technical indicators, suggesting potential for significant upside.

2. Fundamental Analysis

CSV’s recent financial results demonstrate consistent revenue and earnings growth. In Q3 2025, revenue reached $102.7 million, exceeding analyst estimates. The company’s 2025 guidance projects total revenue between $400-$410 million and adjusted diluted EPS of $3.10-$3.30. The death care industry provides a stable demand base, and CSV’s strategic initiatives, including preneed sales and operational improvements, position it for continued success. The FLOAT_M of 15.40 million suggests a ” 품절주(Low Float)” effect, where even moderate buying pressure can drive the price higher.

3. Technical Analysis

The technical indicators paint a bullish picture. The On Balance Volume (OBV) is Up, indicating accumulation by institutional investors even as the price consolidates. This is a classic sign of stealth accumulation. The Money Flow Index (MFI) at 57.20 confirms that smart money is flowing into the stock. The Relative Volume (RVOL) of 2.02 signals that there is sufficient energy for an upward move. The ROT(X) of 0.01 indicates that shares are being transferred from weak hands to strong hands. The stock has broken through a significant PIVOT point, suggesting that previous resistance is now support. The TTM Squeeze is On, indicating that a significant price breakout is imminent. The VWAP is at 43.26, indicating that large players are in the money and will likely defend this level.

4. Strategy: Stealth + Gamma(Call)

The “Stealth” component is supported by the OBV indicator, which reveals accumulation. The “Gamma(Call)” component is supported by the TTM Squeeze indicator, which suggests a high probability of a sharp price increase. Given the target price of $60.0, a call option strategy could provide leveraged exposure to the potential upside. The ATR of 1.07 provides a guideline for managing risk; traders should avoid setting excessively tight stop-loss orders.

5. Risk Assessment

While the technical and fundamental outlook is positive, investors should be aware of potential risks. The Average True Range (ATR) of 1.07 indicates the stock’s daily volatility. The 52-week position is at 55.80, indicating that overhead resistance exists. Therefore, a potential for a technical rebound from lows should be considered.

6. Conclusion

Based on the confluence of strong fundamentals, bullish technical indicators, and a favorable sector outlook, Carriage Services (CSV) presents a compelling investment opportunity. The combination of stealth accumulation and an imminent TTM Squeeze suggests that a significant upward move is highly probable. This is not just a trade; it’s a calculated bet on a company poised to deliver substantial returns.