NVDA: 300% GAINS INEVITABLE? Why Youre DEAD WRONG About NVIDIA (Urgent)

A. Daily Trend Briefing

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) experienced a downward trend today, February 04, 2026, with a daily change of -2.89%, closing at a price of $185.61. This decline comes amidst a broader market environment that is showing signs of increased volatility, as investors continue to digest recent macroeconomic data releases and geopolitical developments. Notably, comments from the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate policy have added to market uncertainty, impacting growth stocks like NVIDIA, which are sensitive to changes in discount rates used to value future earnings. The tech sector, represented by the XLK ETF, is underperforming as investors rotate towards more defensive sectors due to persistent inflation concerns. The sector Relative Strength (RS_SECTOR) of 0.98 indicates that NVIDIA is slightly underperforming its sector, implying a temporary lack of sector leadership. However, macro-economic factors are also likely at play as investors remain risk adverse.

The intraday price action saw NVIDIA test lower support levels, particularly around the $183 mark. While the overall market regime is classified as ‘BULL,’ the day’s price action suggests a temporary deviation from this trend. The TTM Squeeze indicator is currently ‘On,’ suggesting that the stock is coiling up for a potential breakout. However, the direction of the breakout remains uncertain, given today’s downward pressure. Traders should monitor volume closely in the coming sessions to gauge the strength of any potential move. A surge in volume accompanying a move above resistance could signal a bullish breakout, while a similar surge accompanying a move below support could indicate further downside potential. Overall, the daily trend briefing highlights a day of downward pressure on NVIDIA, influenced by macroeconomic factors and sector-specific performance, balanced by the potential for a breakout indicated by the TTM Squeeze.

B. Algorithmic Score Analysis

The algorithmic score for NVDA currently stands at 35.54, signaling caution and suggesting that the stock is not exhibiting strong bullish characteristics at this time. This score is primarily suppressed due to a confluence of factors, including negative sentiment in the news, a lack of strong buying pressure, and certain technical indicators that suggest potential weakness. Firstly, the overall market sentiment, although previously Bullish, may be showing signs of fatigue. News sentiment is muted (NEWS_ALPHA of 0.6921), not indicating strong positive catalysts. While this is above the 0.5 level, the score is significantly lower than the 0.8 threshold for “strong positive news.”

Moreover, although MFI is 56.6 suggesting the stock is not oversold it is not at levels that would suggest the underlying strength in the stock to propel its future increase. The Point of Control (POC) is ‘Down,’ which generally indicates that the dominant price level for the period is trending lower, suggesting bearish pressure. This downward pressure reinforces the recent bearish pattern. More significantly, the On Balance Volume (OBV) is also ‘Down,’ failing to confirm sustained buying pressure. This metric is crucial for understanding if smart money is accumulating the stock, and its current trajectory indicates that there is no clear indication of accumulation.

Furthermore, the Line of Balance Alpha (LOB_ALPHA) stands at 0.5, falling short of the 0.7 threshold, suggesting weak downside protection. This indicates that there may not be strong bids to cushion against further declines. The RESILIENCE of -3.0 also points to the stock’s heightened sensitivity to broader market downturns. Taking these factors together provides insight into why the algorithmic score is below the 50 mark.

C. Key Technical Levels

Identifying key technical levels is crucial for gauging potential entry and exit points for NVDA. Based on the current data, immediate support and resistance levels can be pinpointed as follows:

Resistance:

Immediate Resistance: The VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) serves as a key resistance level. Currently positioned at $186.93, it represents the average price at which the stock has traded today, weighted by volume. A decisive break above this level could signal renewed bullish momentum.
Near-Term Resistance: A near-term resistance level can be identified at approximately $187.05.
Further Resistance: A stronger resistance zone lies around $191.13, which would need to be cleared for any significant upward trajectory to establish itself.

Support:

Immediate Support: The immediate support level lies at $183.38. This level may provide a cushion against further downside.
Next Support Level: Should the stock break below the immediate support, the next level to watch is at approximately $180.99.
Strong Support: A strong support zone exists around $176.23, representing the low of the day. Breaching this level could trigger further selling pressure.

Analyzing these support and resistance levels in conjunction with the aforementioned indicators will provide a clearer picture of NVDA’s short-term trajectory. Traders should monitor these levels closely for potential breakout or breakdown signals, adjusting their strategies accordingly. The relatively high ATR (Average True Range) of 5.22 suggests that price swings could be significant, so risk management is paramount.

1. Technical Signal Breakdown

A. Momentum & Trend

The momentum and trend analysis for NVIDIA (NVDA) presents a mixed picture, requiring careful interpretation of the available indicators. Currently, the TREND_RANK is 1, suggesting the stock is exhibiting a relatively strong uptrend compared to its peers. However, this needs to be contextualized with other momentum-related indicators to get a holistic view. The strategy flags “TTM Squeeze” and “Hr_Sqz” are both active, indicating a period of consolidation and potential for a breakout. The presence of a “Squeeze” implies that volatility has contracted, and the stock is poised for a significant move, but the direction remains uncertain.

Analyzing the Average Directional Index (ADX) and Hurst exponent, which are unfortunately not provided in the current data set, would typically offer deeper insights into the trend’s strength and predictability. A high ADX (above 25) would confirm a strong trend, while a low ADX (below 20) would indicate a weak or sideways trend. The Hurst exponent, ranging from 0 to 1, provides information on the trend’s persistence. A Hurst exponent closer to 0.5 suggests a random or unpredictable trend, while values closer to 0 or 1 suggest anti-persistence (mean-reverting) or persistence (trending), respectively. Without these values, we must rely on other indicators to gauge momentum.

The Relative Strength (RS_SECTOR) is 0.98, which is a little below the 1.2 level indicating sectoral leadership. This means that, while NVDA is performing well, it’s not significantly outperforming its sector ETF (XLK). The absence of a strong RS_SECTOR reading suggests that NVDA’s momentum might be more correlated with overall sector performance than driven by company-specific factors.

The Point of Control (POC) is currently “Down,” indicating that the price level with the highest traded volume is shifting lower. This can be interpreted as a sign of weakening buying pressure and potentially increasing selling pressure at lower price levels. It suggests that the current consolidation phase might lean towards a bearish resolution if the POC continues to decline.

Furthermore, the “Impulse” indicator, which is constrained as “Wait,” usually can signal a potential momentum boost. Because the constraint is present, we cannot assess any momentum from this source. The “SENT_DIV” (Sentiment Divergence) being “Bullish” indicates that market sentiment is still leaning positively, despite the day’s negative price change. This can create a psychological turning point.

Overall, the momentum and trend analysis paints a cautious picture. While the TREND_RANK suggests a general uptrend, the active “Squeeze,” the “Down” POC, and the lack of strong sector outperformance indicate potential weakening momentum. Without specific ADX and Hurst exponent values, a definitive conclusion on trend strength is difficult. This is where the Bullish SENT_DIV enters the picture because it can cause a change in market perception, and cause the price to increase.

B. Volume & Liquidity

Analyzing volume and liquidity is crucial to understanding the underlying buying and selling pressure driving NVDA’s price action. The Relative Volume (RVOL) is currently at 1.0, which indicates that the trading volume today is equal to the average trading volume. An RVOL of 3.0 or higher would suggest significantly increased trading activity, potentially indicating strong conviction behind price movements. The current RVOL of 1.0 suggests a normal level of interest.

The critical aspect of liquidity analysis lies in examining the Limit Order Book Alpha (LOB_ALPHA), which is 0.5. The guide indicates it should be above 0.7 for robust lower rigidity. This means that the order book is not showing strong signs of buying at the current level.

The “ORDER_ACT” (Order Action) is “LIMIT_BUY” with a note of “Safe Entry,” suggesting that the system identifies a potential buying opportunity at the current price level, possibly based on pre-defined risk parameters and entry criteria. The presence of a “LIMIT_BUY” signal indicates some degree of confidence in a potential price rebound, but its effectiveness depends on the overall market conditions and the strength of the buying pressure.

Considering these points, the volume and liquidity analysis presents a balanced view. The RVOL of 1.0 suggests normal trading activity, while the LOB_ALPHA indicates limited lower rigidity in the order book. The “LIMIT_BUY” signal and “Safe Entry” note imply that the system identifies a buying opportunity, but the limited volume and order book support highlight the need for caution. A more substantial increase in RVOL or a strengthening of LOB_ALPHA above 0.7 would provide stronger confirmation of buying interest and potentially support a more bullish outlook.

2. Institutional Flow & Market Forces

A. Dark Pool Activity

Dark pool activity provides a glimpse into institutional trading behavior, offering insights into large block orders executed away from the public exchanges. Analyzing dark pool data for NVIDIA (NVDA) reveals a complex picture. The current DIX-SIG reading is “Ultra,” which, under normal circumstances, would suggest extremely high institutional buying pressure in dark pools. However, it’s crucial to interpret this signal cautiously and consider it in conjunction with other available data points. A single “Ultra” DIX-SIG reading does not automatically translate to a uniformly bullish outlook.

The DIX-SIG indicator calculates the difference between the average dark pool print size (DIX) and the average public exchange print size (SIG). When the DIX is significantly larger than the SIG, as is implied by an “Ultra” reading, it typically indicates that large institutions are accumulating shares in dark pools, potentially signaling an impending upward move in the stock price. These institutions often use dark pools to execute large orders without significantly impacting the market price, thereby minimizing price slippage and avoiding front-running by other market participants.

However, it is essential to acknowledge the limitations of relying solely on the DIX-SIG signal. Dark pool activity can be influenced by a variety of factors, including hedging strategies, arbitrage opportunities, and block trades unrelated to directional sentiment. Furthermore, the “Ultra” reading might be skewed by a few exceptionally large orders, rather than reflecting a consistent pattern of institutional accumulation. Therefore, a thorough assessment requires delving deeper into the specific dark pool data, analyzing the volume and frequency of trades, and cross-referencing with other indicators.

In the case of NVDA, the seemingly bullish “Ultra” DIX-SIG needs to be tempered by the knowledge that the OBV (On Balance Volume) is down, which means there is no evidence that smart money is accumulating. The down OBV implies that volume on down days is higher than volume on up days, indicating that institutions are selling rather than buying. In addition to that, the recent insider trading trends show net selling by insiders. Considering these factors, it’s more prudent to interpret the “Ultra” DIX-SIG as a potential indicator of institutional hedging activity or rebalancing, rather than a straightforward sign of aggressive accumulation. It’s possible that institutions are selling shares in the open market while simultaneously covering their positions through dark pool transactions.

The “Ultra” DIX-SIG could also be a consequence of large institutions unwinding positions built up earlier. Dark pools provide a discreet avenue for offloading substantial blocks of shares without triggering a significant price decline. The fact that the price has decreased despite the Ultra DIX-SIG reading is indicative that the prints in the dark pools are sell orders. It is possible that large institutions are taking profits on their positions due to concerns about the broader economic outlook or the company’s future growth prospects.

Without granular data on the specific dark pool trades, it’s difficult to definitively determine the motivations behind the “Ultra” DIX-SIG reading. However, the cautious approach involves acknowledging the potential for both bullish and bearish interpretations. In light of the conflicting signals from other indicators, the “Ultra” DIX-SIG reading should be viewed as a neutral to slightly bearish signal, rather than an unequivocal endorsement of a bullish outlook. Investors should exercise caution and avoid over-relying on a single data point when making investment decisions.

B. Gamma Exposure

Gamma exposure represents the sensitivity of an option’s delta (the rate of change of an option’s price with respect to changes in the underlying asset’s price) to changes in the price of the underlying asset. It is a crucial factor influencing market volatility because options market makers, who are responsible for maintaining orderly markets, must hedge their positions to manage their risk exposure. These hedging activities can amplify price movements, especially when gamma exposure is high.

Understanding gamma exposure requires differentiating between positive and negative gamma. Options market makers who are short options (i.e., have sold options to customers) have positive gamma exposure. This means that as the price of the underlying asset increases, their delta also increases, forcing them to buy more of the underlying asset to remain delta-neutral. Conversely, as the price of the underlying asset decreases, their delta decreases, requiring them to sell the underlying asset. This dynamic can create a self-reinforcing loop, where price increases lead to more buying, and price decreases lead to more selling, thus exacerbating price swings.

On the other hand, options market makers who are long options (i.e., have bought options from customers) have negative gamma exposure. In this scenario, as the price of the underlying asset increases, their delta decreases, requiring them to sell the underlying asset. Conversely, as the price of the underlying asset decreases, their delta increases, requiring them to buy the underlying asset. This dynamic tends to stabilize the market by dampening price fluctuations.

Given NVDA’s current market environment, a detailed assessment of gamma exposure requires access to real-time options data, including open interest, strike prices, and expiration dates. However, without this granular information, it’s challenging to make definitive statements about the precise impact of gamma exposure on today’s market volatility. Nevertheless, we can make some general observations based on common market dynamics.

The absence of G_INTEN and G_VELO readings suggests that gamma forces may be in a period of equilibrium, or that the data is not currently reflecting a strong directional influence. This doesn’t mean gamma is absent, but instead that it isn’t exhibiting a particularly strong directional bias. It is possible that options market makers are relatively well-hedged, or that options trading is less active than usual. This equilibrium may mean that any external factor would have a magnified impact on volatility because gamma forces are not working to dampen market shocks. It is also possible that because the HR_SQZ is in “Squeeze”, gamma dynamics are muted by other technical indicators.

The fact that the order recommendation is “Safe Entry” also indicates there may be less gamma exposure than usual. “Safe Entry” usually accompanies periods of relative stability and moderate volatility.

Overall, one can infer that while gamma exposure undoubtedly plays a role in NVDA’s market dynamics, its influence might be muted or balanced at this particular juncture. This lack of strong directional gamma can be interpreted as a period of consolidation or transition, where the market is waiting for a catalyst to trigger a more pronounced move.

C. Sector Context

Analyzing NVDA’s performance within the broader sector provides valuable context for understanding its relative strength and potential future trajectory. NVDA is classified as a technology stock, typically benchmarked against the XLK (Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund). By comparing NVDA’s performance to XLK, it is possible to assess whether NVDA is outperforming, underperforming, or trading in line with the sector average.

The RS_SECTOR reading of 0.98 suggests that NVDA is trading nearly in line with the overall performance of the sector. An RS_SECTOR value of 1.0 would indicate perfect correlation, meaning that NVDA’s price movements mirror the XLK’s. Given a reading of 0.98, NVDA is slightly underperforming compared to its sector’s average. This indicates that sector tailwinds are not as strong for this stock as they are for its competitors. The sector is performing relatively strongly, but NVDA may be facing idiosyncratic headwinds that are slightly dragging down its relative performance.

The factors that can explain NVDA’s slight underperformance relative to the broader tech sector can include:
Company-Specific News: The news flow can be negative for NVDA specifically as opposed to the sector in general. For example, there can be an earnings miss, a product recall, or a regulatory investigation.
Valuation Concerns: NVDA’s market capitalization of $4.51T represents a significant percentage of its total float. The sector might contain stocks trading at more attractive valuations, leading investors to allocate capital elsewhere.
Competitive Pressures: NVDA may be losing market share to competitors in certain segments. This may include losing market share in cloud computing or in autonomous vehicles.
Supply Chain Issues: NVDA can have its supply chains affected by geopolitical tension.
Analyst Downgrades: NVDA may have negative feedback from Wall Street Analysts.

It’s important to note that sector context can change rapidly based on evolving market conditions, technological advancements, and macroeconomic factors.

Okay, here’s the fundamental context and recent news section for NVDA, as of February 4, 2026, adhering to the specified constraints and word count requirements:

3. Fundamental Context & Recent News

A. Breaking News Impact

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is currently navigating a mixed news environment that is contributing to the observed price volatility. Several recent news headlines are impacting investor sentiment and influencing short-term trading decisions. One significant headline suggests that NVDA’s stock “needs a spark,” indicating a perceived lack of immediate catalysts to drive further price appreciation after a period of substantial gains. This implies that the market may be waiting for concrete developments, such as new product announcements or significant earnings surprises, to justify continued bullish momentum. The absence of such catalysts could be contributing to the current consolidation phase, as investors re-evaluate the stock’s near-term growth potential.

Another concerning headline points to potential issues with OpenAI’s support from NVIDIA. OpenAI, a leading artificial intelligence research and deployment company, relies heavily on NVIDIA’s GPUs for its AI models and infrastructure. If OpenAI experiences difficulties with NVIDIA’s support, it could negatively impact NVIDIA’s reputation and potentially reduce future orders from one of its key clients. This is particularly relevant given the increasing competition in the AI chip market, where alternative solutions are emerging. Any perceived weakness in NVIDIA’s ability to support its major clients could erode its competitive advantage and lead to market share losses. The news about OpenAI’s potential support issues should be considered carefully since its could have a negative effect on investor confidence.

Furthermore, broader macroeconomic factors are also playing a role in shaping NVIDIA’s stock performance. Concerns about inflation, interest rate hikes, and potential economic slowdowns are weighing on the overall tech sector, including NVIDIA. These macroeconomic headwinds can dampen investor enthusiasm for growth stocks, particularly those with high valuations. Investors may be rotating out of high-growth tech stocks and into more defensive sectors, such as consumer staples or utilities, in anticipation of a more challenging economic environment. The uncertainty surrounding the macroeconomic outlook is adding to the complexity of the investment landscape and contributing to the current price volatility in NVIDIA’s stock.

Despite these challenges, NVIDIA continues to benefit from strong secular trends in areas such as artificial intelligence, data centers, and gaming. The demand for GPUs and AI accelerators is expected to remain robust in the coming years, driven by the increasing adoption of AI technologies across various industries. NVIDIA’s leading position in these markets positions it well to capitalize on these growth opportunities. However, the company must also navigate increasing competition from rivals such as AMD, Intel, and emerging AI chip startups. Maintaining its technological edge and expanding its product portfolio will be crucial for NVIDIA to sustain its growth momentum in the long term. The mixed news environment highlights the need for investors to carefully weigh the risks and opportunities facing NVIDIA before making investment decisions.

B. Valuation Check

Based on the latest financials available as of November 19, 2025, for Q3 Fiscal Year 2026, NVIDIA’s valuation presents a complex picture. The company reported impressive revenue of \$57.0 billion, reflecting a substantial 22% increase from the previous quarter and a remarkable 62% year-over-year growth. This robust revenue growth underscores NVIDIA’s strong market position and its ability to capitalize on the increasing demand for its products and services. The company also achieved a net income of \$31.91 billion, demonstrating its profitability and operational efficiency. The earnings per share (EPS) for the latest quarter was \$1.30, indicating a healthy level of earnings generation.

However, NVIDIA’s high market capitalization of \$4.51 trillion also implies a premium valuation, reflecting the market’s expectations for continued high growth. Investors are willing to pay a higher multiple for NVIDIA’s earnings due to its perceived leadership in key growth areas such as AI, data centers, and gaming. However, this high valuation also makes the stock more vulnerable to negative surprises or shifts in market sentiment. Any perceived slowdown in growth or increased competition could lead to a significant correction in the stock price.

The debt-to-equity ratio of 9.10% indicates a relatively low level of leverage, suggesting that NVIDIA has a strong balance sheet and is not overly reliant on debt financing. This provides the company with financial flexibility to invest in research and development, pursue strategic acquisitions, and weather any potential economic downturns. A strong balance sheet is particularly important for technology companies, which often require significant investments in innovation to maintain their competitive edge.

While NVIDIA’s current valuation reflects its strong growth prospects and market leadership, investors should also consider the potential risks and uncertainties that could impact its future performance. These include increasing competition, technological disruptions, and macroeconomic headwinds. A careful assessment of these factors is essential to determine whether NVIDIA’s current valuation is justified and whether the stock represents an attractive investment opportunity.

C. Sentiment Check

The current market sentiment surrounding NVIDIA appears to be cautiously optimistic, tilting towards a state of “hopeful greed” rather than outright euphoria. The SENT_DIV indicator is Bullish, suggesting that market participants generally hold a positive view of the stock’s prospects. This optimism is likely fueled by NVIDIA’s strong financial performance, its leadership in key growth markets, and the long-term secular trends that are driving demand for its products and services.

However, there are also underlying concerns and uncertainties that are preventing sentiment from becoming excessively bullish. The recent price volatility, the mixed news environment, and the macroeconomic headwinds are all contributing to a sense of caution among investors. The fact that NVIDIA’s stock “needs a spark” suggests that the market is waiting for concrete developments to justify further price appreciation, rather than blindly chasing the stock higher.

The insider selling activity, with a net sell-off of -$150,366,001.24 over the last 90 days, also adds to the cautious sentiment. While insider selling is not necessarily a negative signal, it can raise questions about whether insiders believe the stock is fully valued or whether they have concerns about the company’s future prospects. Investors often view insider trading activity as a window into the sentiment and outlook of those who know the company best.

Overall, the market sentiment towards NVIDIA is one of cautious optimism, driven by the company’s strong fundamentals but tempered by concerns about valuation, competition, and macroeconomic risks. Investors are likely to remain selective and discerning, focusing on concrete developments and earnings surprises to justify further bullish positions. A sustained period of positive news and strong financial performance will be necessary to shift the market sentiment towards outright greed and drive NVIDIA’s stock to new highs. Conversely, any negative surprises or disappointments could quickly erode investor confidence and lead to a significant correction in the stock price. The balance between hope and fear will likely continue to shape NVIDIA’s stock performance in the near term.

4. Risk Analysis & Scenario Planning

A. Downside Risks

NVIDIA, while exhibiting strong fundamentals, is not immune to downside risks. A break below key support levels could trigger a significant correction. To quantify this, a Monte Carlo risk analysis is essential. Such analysis considers various potential negative catalysts and their impact on the stock price.

Firstly, macroeconomic headwinds present a significant risk. A broader market downturn, spurred by factors like rising interest rates, inflationary pressures, or geopolitical instability, would inevitably weigh on NVIDIA’s stock. Given NVIDIA’s beta of 1.89, it is significantly more volatile than the broader market, amplifying potential losses during market corrections. A sharp decline in overall market sentiment could easily push NVDA below its immediate support levels.

Secondly, company-specific challenges could also trigger a downside move. Increasing competition in the GPU market, particularly from AMD and emerging players, could erode NVIDIA’s market share and pricing power. Any delays or setbacks in the development and launch of new products, particularly in the AI and data center segments, could also negatively impact investor sentiment. Furthermore, regulatory scrutiny regarding NVIDIA’s market dominance or export restrictions on advanced chips could pose a significant threat.

A breakdown below the \$180 level represents a crucial inflection point. If this level is breached with significant volume, it could trigger a cascade of stop-loss orders, accelerating the decline. The next major support level to watch would be around \$175. A break below this level could potentially lead to a test of the \$170 level. In a severe bear case scenario, considering the high beta and potential for negative news flow, NVDA could even retest its 52-week low around \$86.62, although this represents a more extreme scenario. The resilience score of -3.0 indicates a vulnerability to downside movements, further emphasizing the importance of monitoring support levels. The fact that OBV is trending down suggests that institutional investors are gradually decreasing their positions, potentially contributing to further downward pressure. The LOB_ALPHA of 0.5, while indicating some buying interest, is not strong enough to provide significant support.

A Monte Carlo simulation incorporating these factors would generate a range of potential downside outcomes, allowing investors to better assess the probability and magnitude of potential losses. This simulation should consider factors such as volatility, correlation with the broader market, and the potential impact of various negative news events.

B. Upside Triggers

For NVIDIA to breakout and reach its target price of \$244.02, several positive catalysts need to materialize.

Firstly, continued strong earnings growth in the data center and gaming segments is crucial. NVIDIA needs to demonstrate that its dominance in the GPU market remains intact and that it can continue to capitalize on the growing demand for AI and accelerated computing. Positive surprises in earnings reports, driven by strong revenue growth and expanding margins, would likely be met with renewed investor enthusiasm.

Secondly, breakthroughs in new technologies or strategic partnerships could act as significant upside triggers. For instance, successful development and commercialization of new AI chips or advancements in autonomous driving technology could significantly boost NVIDIA’s growth prospects. A major partnership with a leading cloud provider or automaker could also generate substantial positive news flow.

Thirdly, a shift in overall market sentiment could also provide a tailwind for NVIDIA’s stock. A renewed bull market, driven by factors like falling interest rates or improving economic conditions, would likely benefit high-growth stocks like NVIDIA.

To trigger a sustained breakout, NVIDIA needs to demonstrate not only strong financial performance but also technological leadership and strategic foresight. The TTM Squeeze being ‘On’ suggests the stock is in a consolidation phase and poised for a potential breakout, but the direction of that breakout will depend on these catalysts. A surge in volume accompanying a positive news event would be a strong indication that a breakout is underway. A move above \$190 with sustained volume would likely signal a test of the \$195 resistance level, potentially paving the way for a move towards the \$200 level. Achieving a RS_SECTOR value of 1.2 or higher would also demonstrate strong sector leadership, attracting further investment.

C. Trading Scenarios

Based on the current technical and fundamental landscape, here are potential trading scenarios for NVDA:

Bullish Scenario: If the price breaks above \$190 with a significant increase in volume, look for a continuation towards \$195 and potentially \$200. A sustained move above \$200 could trigger further upside towards the target price of \$244.02. In this scenario, monitor news flow for positive catalysts and watch for increasing institutional buying activity.

Neutral Scenario: If the price consolidates between \$180 and \$190, consider a neutral stance. Monitor volume and news flow for potential breakout signals. A lack of clear direction could indicate a period of consolidation before the next major move.

Bearish Scenario: If the price breaks below \$180 with increased volume, watch for a potential decline towards \$175 and \$170. A sustained move below \$170 could trigger further downside pressure. In this scenario, monitor for negative news flow and increasing selling pressure. Consider tightening stop-loss orders to protect against further losses. The DIX-SIG being “Ultra” indicates that sentiment is leaning towards bearish, but it can also be a contrarian indicator, so it requires careful monitoring along with price action and volume. The RVOL of 1.0 does not indicate any strong conviction, so it’s important to remain vigilant for a shift in trading volume.

5. Daily Summary & Watchlist Verdict

A. The Bottom Line

NVIDIA (NVDA) presents a mixed picture as of February 4, 2026. While the underlying fundamentals remain robust, evidenced by its strong market capitalization of $4.51T and the ongoing tailwinds from the “Catalyst On” and “TTM Squeeze” strategies, the day’s price action reveals some cause for concern. The stock experienced a notable decline of 2.89%, closing at $185.61, a move that necessitates careful evaluation of its near-term trajectory. The “Hr_Sqz” designation suggests potential for short-term volatility, a characteristic traders should prepare for.

From a technical standpoint, the trend is currently best described as neutral to bearish. Although the TREND_RANK is still at 1, indicating an overall positive long-term trend, the day’s price decrease and the “POC: Down” indicator suggest a shift in momentum. This indicator implies that selling pressure was more prevalent during the trading session. The absence of OBV confirmation (“OBV: Down”) further dampens the bullish outlook, signifying a lack of strong buying conviction from institutional investors. The MFI (Money Flow Index) value of 56.6 indicates healthy accumulation but is not strong enough to counter the negative price action. VWAP is at 186.93, which is slightly above the closing price, which means there’s selling pressure that needs to be overcome for any upward momentum.

The DISPARITY of 0.0051 suggests a safe entry point from a valuation perspective. However, the negative RESILIENCE value of -3.0 indicates that the stock is underperforming compared to broader market movements, indicating potential headwinds beyond sector specific concerns. The NEWS_ALPHA of 0.6921 suggests positive news flow, but it falls short of the 0.8 threshold that would signal robust positive sentiment driving the stock.

Overall, the data points to a stock at a critical juncture. While NVIDIA’s underlying strength and growth prospects remain attractive, the day’s price action and the signals from key technical indicators call for cautious optimism and careful monitoring. The current score doesn’t indicate a strong buying opportunity.

B. Actionable Watchlist

For the next trading session, traders and investors should closely monitor the following levels and indicators:

1. Key Support Levels: Monitor the price action around $184.94, $183.38, $183.32, $182.55 and $180.99 as these are key support levels. A decisive break below $184.94 could trigger further downside momentum, potentially leading to a test of the $183.38 and $183.32 levels. Conversely, a strong bounce from these levels could indicate a potential rebound.

2. Key Resistance Levels: Focus on the resistance levels at $195.21, $192.57, $191.13, $188.08, $187.05 and $186.60. A sustained move above $186.60 would be a positive sign, potentially paving the way for a test of the higher resistance levels. Pay attention to how the stock interacts with these resistance levels; a failure to break through could indicate continued bearish pressure.

3. Volume and RVOL: Pay close attention to the volume during the next session. The RVOL (Relative Volume) of 1.0 indicates that the trading volume was in line with its average. A significant increase in volume accompanied by positive price action would signal strong buying interest and potentially confirm a bullish reversal. Conversely, high volume on further price declines would reinforce the bearish outlook.

4. LOB_ALPHA: Closely monitor the LOB_ALPHA, which currently stands at 0.5. A rise above 0.7 would suggest stronger downside support. As a result, the market would be less sensitive to negative economic updates.

5. TTM Squeeze: While the TTM Squeeze is currently “On”, traders should watch for signals indicating either a breakout or breakdown. A breakout above resistance levels accompanied by increasing volume would be a bullish signal, while a breakdown below support levels would confirm the bearish trend.

6. News Sentiment: Keep abreast of any news related to NVIDIA, particularly regarding industry developments, competitor activity, or regulatory changes. Positive news flow could provide a catalyst for a rebound, while negative news could exacerbate the downside pressure.

By closely monitoring these levels and indicators, traders and investors can gain a better understanding of NVIDIA’s near-term trajectory and make informed decisions based on the stock’s price action and market sentiment.