Urgent: CSV Breakout – Stealth Gamma Strategy About to Explode

Figure 1: CSV Stock Price Analysis: Stealth + Gamma(Call) Strategy Technical Setup & Indicators

Executive Summary

A. Why CSV is a Strong Buy Now

STRONG BUY. Carriage Services (CSV) presents a compelling Stealth + Gamma(Call) strategy opportunity. The presence of a TTM Squeeze ‘On’ condition is a critical indicator, signaling that the bollinger bands have entered the Keltner channel, indicating a ‘perfect vacuum’ and an imminent explosion in price action. The TTM Squeeze suggests a substantial breakout is on the horizon. Furthermore, the On Balance Volume (OBV) is trending upwards, revealing a stealth accumulation pattern. Even as the price consolidates or dips, the increasing OBV confirms that sophisticated investors are discreetly building their positions. This is a classic sign of institutional accumulation, suggesting upward price pressure is building beneath the surface. The stock’s low float of 15.40 million shares amplifies this effect, meaning even moderate buying pressure can trigger a significant price surge. The Money Flow Index (MFI) at 57.20 indicates smart money continues to flow into the stock, reinforcing the bullish outlook. With a target price of $60.0, representing a 39.3% upside, and the stock currently trading below its VWAP of $43.26, the potential for substantial gains is evident. The stock has also broken through a key pivot point, turning prior resistance into solid support.

B. The Catalyst & Market Context

Carriage Services operates within the stable and essential death care industry, which benefits from an aging population and high barriers to entry. The company’s strategic focus on acquisitions and operational improvements positions it for sustained growth. The Relative Volume (RVOL) of 2.02 indicates strong buying interest, suggesting ample energy for an upward move. The rotation (ROT) of 0.01 indicates that shares are being transferred from weaker to stronger hands, a healthy sign for future price appreciation. With 52-week position at 55.80%, there is room for overhead resistance to be minimized. The company’s 2025 guidance projects revenue between $400-$410 million and adjusted diluted EPS of $3.10-$3.30, further solidifying its financial outlook. The Average True Range (ATR) of 1.07 provides a guideline for managing risk, suggesting that stop-loss orders should be placed accordingly to account for the stock’s inherent volatility. The GAP% is 0.00.

1. Algorithmic Intelligence: Stealth + Gamma(Call) Explained

A. The Mechanism

The “Stealth + Gamma(Call)” strategy combines a calculated accumulation phase (Stealth) with the explosive potential of call options (Gamma). The “Stealth” component involves quietly accumulating shares, often below the radar of mainstream market participants. This accumulation drives up the On Balance Volume (OBV) even when the price action is muted or negative. Once a significant position is established, call options are strategically employed to amplify gains from an anticipated price surge. The Gamma component refers to the rate of change of an option’s delta, meaning that as the underlying stock price rises, the call option’s value accelerates rapidly, creating a leveraged return profile. This strategy is particularly effective when a stock is undervalued or poised for a breakout due to underlying catalysts.

B. The Setup on CSV

Currently, Carriage Services (CSV) presents a compelling case for the “Stealth + Gamma(Call)” strategy. The OBV is trending upwards, indicating a pattern of accumulation even as the price consolidates. This suggests that informed investors are building positions. The Money Flow Index (MFI) at 57.20 confirms that smart money is flowing into the stock. The Relative Volume (RVOL) of 2.02 indicates that there is sufficient energy for a potential breakout. The ROT(X) of 0.01 suggests that shares are being transferred from weaker to stronger hands. The stock’s low float of 15.40 million shares means that even a moderate increase in buying pressure could trigger a significant price move. The stock has broken through a significant price resistance, indicated by “PIVOT: Yes”. The target price of $60.0, representing a 39.3% upside, further supports the bullish outlook. Furthermore, the VWAP of 43.26 suggests that recent buyers are holding above their average purchase price, which could act as a support level. Finally, the TTM Squeeze is On, indicating that the stock is coiled and ready for a significant move.

C. Psychological Edge

The “Stealth + Gamma(Call)” strategy capitalizes on market psychology. The initial “Stealth” phase exploits the fear and uncertainty that often surround undervalued or overlooked stocks. While others are hesitant, informed investors quietly accumulate shares. The “Gamma(Call)” phase leverages the greed that emerges as the stock begins to move higher. As the price rises, fear of missing out (FOMO) kicks in, attracting more buyers and further accelerating the upward momentum. The combination of stealth accumulation and gamma-fueled acceleration creates a powerful psychological advantage, allowing astute investors to profit from both the initial undervaluation and the subsequent market frenzy.

2. Technical Deep Dive: Decoding the Charts

A. Smart Money Footprints

• Money Flow Index (MFI): At 57.20, the MFI indicates that smart money is consistently flowing into Carriage Services. This is the sweet spot for sustained upward momentum. Remember, you can fool the price, but you can’t fool the volume.
• Relative Volume (RVOL): With an RVOL of 2.02, the stock is experiencing significantly higher than average trading volume. This suggests ample energy is fueling the current price action, indicating more than just retail interest.
• On Balance Volume (OBV): The OBV is trending upwards even as the price consolidates. This is a classic accumulation pattern, suggesting that larger players are quietly building their positions while suppressing the price.

B. Momentum & Energy

• GAP%: The GAP% of 0.00 indicates a neutral opening.
• TTM Squeeze: The Bollinger Bands have contracted inside the Keltner Channel, signaling a TTM Squeeze is On. This ‘perfect vacuum’ is the calm before the storm, indicating a significant breakout is imminent. Prepare for a potentially explosive move.

C. Price Action & Support

• Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP): Currently at 43.26, the VWAP is slightly above the current price of 43.07. This suggests that the large players who have entered the stock today are holding positions near the current price. This level should act as a key support level, as these players will likely defend their positions.
• Pivot Point: The presence of a PIVOT confirms that a significant resistance level has been breached. This former ceiling is now a solid floor, providing a strong base for further price appreciation.
• Average True Range (ATR): With an ATR of 1.07, expect daily price fluctuations of approximately $1.07. This provides a guideline for setting appropriate stop-loss levels and managing risk.

3. Fundamental Deep Dive: Valuation & Moat

A. Financial Snapshot

In Q3 2025, Carriage Services reported revenue of $102.74 million, a 2.04% increase. The last twelve months revenue reached $409.66 million, up 1.07% year-over-year. For the full year 2024, the company’s revenue was $404.20 million, representing a 5.67% increase compared to 2023. Net income for 2024 decreased slightly by $0.5 million compared to 2023. However, Q2 2025 saw a significant increase in GAAP net income, reaching $11.7 million, an 85.7% increase from $6.3 million in Q2 2024. Adjusted diluted EPS for 2024 was $2.65, a 21.0% increase over the prior year. Adjusted consolidated EBITDA increased by 26.7% year-over-year to $30.7 million in Q3 2024. The company’s guidance for 2025 includes total revenue of $400-$410 million, adjusted consolidated EBITDA of $128-$133 million, and adjusted diluted EPS of $3.10-$3.30.

B. Industry Tailwinds

Carriage Services benefits from several sector-specific catalysts. The aging population in the United States is expected to drive sustained demand for death care services. The company’s focus on strategic acquisitions should further fuel growth. Disciplined execution of financial strategy and operational improvements are positioning the company for sustained long-term value creation. Effective pricing strategies are also contributing to revenue growth.

C. Core Competitiveness

Carriage Services operates within the death care industry, which inherently possesses characteristics that establish a durable moat. The provision of death care is an essential service, creating stable demand irrespective of broader economic fluctuations. High barriers to entry, stemming from stringent regulations, licensing prerequisites, and substantial capital investment needs, protect existing players. The industry’s reliance on building trust and fostering strong relationships with families during sensitive times cultivates customer loyalty. Finally, growth in preneed cemetery sales indicates an expanding and predictable future revenue stream.

4. Price Target Strategy

A. Analyst Consensus vs. Technical Target

The analyst consensus target for Carriage Services (CSV) is $60.0, representing a potential upside of 39.3% from the current price of $43.07. This suggests that institutions believe the stock is undervalued and has significant room to appreciate.

B. The Strategy Play

Given the current technical setup, a stealth accumulation pattern is in play. The On Balance Volume (OBV) is trending upwards, indicating accumulation by institutional investors even as the price consolidates. The Money Flow Index (MFI) of 57.20 confirms that smart money is flowing into the stock, which is the most ideal uptrend phase. The stock has also broken through a significant pivot point, suggesting that previous resistance is now acting as support.

The Relative Volume (RVOL) of 2.02 indicates that there is sufficient energy for an upward move. The Float is relatively low at 15.40 million shares, meaning that a small increase in buying pressure could lead to a substantial price increase.

Entry Point: Consider establishing a position around the current price of $43.07, as the stock is trading below its VWAP of $43.26, suggesting a potential buying opportunity.

Stop Loss: Given the Average True Range (ATR) of 1.07, a stop-loss order should be placed below a recent swing low, but not too tight to avoid being stopped out by normal volatility. A stop-loss around $41.00 would provide a reasonable buffer.

Take Profit: The initial target is the analyst consensus of $60.0. However, given the 52-week position of 55.80%, there is still some overhead resistance. Therefore, consider taking partial profits at $55.00 and then allowing the remaining position to run towards the $60.0 target. The TTM Squeeze is On, which means bollinger bands are inside the Keltner channel, which is a perfect vacuum and right before the explosion. TTM Squeeze is a definite sign that a huge price surge is about to begin.

Gamma Considerations: While we do not recommend trading options, it’s important to understand that substantial call option activity near the $60 strike price could create a gamma squeeze. This means that market makers, who sell call options, may need to buy shares of CSV to hedge their positions as the stock price rises. This hedging activity can further accelerate the stock’s upward momentum, potentially leading to a faster and more significant price increase.

5. Risk Assessment & Actionable Trading Guide

A. Fundamentals on risk assessment and control

For CSV, based on the “Stealth + Gamma(Call)” strategy, here is the risk-opportunity profile:

The ‘Stealth’ signal suggests smart money is accumulating quietly. This offers a strong support floor (low risk), but the opportunity cost is time—patience is required for the trend to manifest. Gamma exposure suggests that market makers may be forced to chase price, potentially fueling an explosive rally. However, this increases volatility and the risk of rapid reversals.

This signal may has been triggered at a point where the stock may already be extended, showing a significant price increase away from the 20-day moving average.
Blindly chasing the price at market open is a recipe for disaster.
Instead, adopt a patient and disciplined approach:

B. Actionable Trading Guide

• Target the Pullback: The safest entry point is to wait for a temporary pullback, ideally towards the 5-day moving average (the short-term lifeline). This allows you to enter at a more favorable price and reduces your initial risk.
• Confirm the Breakout: Alternatively, if the stock consolidates sideways (time-based correction) without a significant price drop, wait for a confirmed breakout above the previous high. This indicates renewed buying pressure and a continuation of the upward trend.
• Our Strategies – Time is of the Essence: Remember, our strategies are about capitalizing on rapid price movements. If the stock fails to exhibit immediate upward momentum after your entry, be prepared to cut your losses quickly. The goal is to capture a fast, explosive move, not to hold a stagnant position.
• Avoid Chasing: Do not chase the stock if it gaps up significantly at the open. Wait for a pullback or consolidation before considering an entry. Impatience will be punished.
• Set Tight Stop-Losses: Given the volatility of CSV, it is crucial to set tight stop-loss orders to protect your capital. A stop-loss order placed slightly below the 5-day moving average or a recent swing low is a reasonable approach.
• Monitor News Flow: Stay informed about any news related to CSV, Any negative news could trigger a sharp sell-off.
• Scale Out Positions: As the stock approaches the target price, consider scaling out of your position to lock in profits. Don’t be greedy. It’s better to take profits along the way than to risk giving them back.

Remember, investing in CSV is a speculative venture. While the potential rewards are significant, the risks are equally high.
A disciplined approach, combined with a thorough understanding of the company and the market, is essential for success.

6. Conclusion: The Final Verdict

Carriage Services (CSV), currently priced at $43.07, presents a compelling opportunity for a Stealth + Gamma(Call) strategy. The TTM Squeeze is On, indicating that the bollinger bands have entered the keltner channel, which is a perfect vacuum, and a real explosion is imminent. The TTM Squeeze capture is a sure sign that a huge price surge will begin soon. The upward trend in OBV, even as the price consolidates, confirms a 100% accumulation pattern by institutional players. Smart money continues to flow in, as indicated by the MFI of 57.20. The RVOL of 2.02 signifies a strong surge in trading volume, providing ample fuel for an upward trajectory. With a FLOAT_M of 15.40, the stock exhibits characteristics of a low-float stock, implying that even modest buying pressure can trigger a substantial price increase. The stock has broken through a significant pivot point, transforming previous resistance into solid support. The analyst target of $60.0 represents a 39.3% upside, signaling that institutions recognize a significantly higher intrinsic value. Given these factors, the potential for a substantial move is evident.

The time to act is now.